A citizen-led campaign aimed at stopping new coal mining along Alberta’s Eastern Slopes has failed to clear its final hurdle after a provincewide signature review.

Elections Alberta confirmed July 3 that the initiative led by musician Corb Lund and the Water Not Coal group is unsuccessful under the Citizen Initiative Act.

Chief Electoral Officer Gordon McClure said the petition did not meet the required threshold after verification and statistical sampling of signatures collected across the province.

Despite more than 196,000 signatures being counted as valid, the verified total fell below the legal requirement needed to trigger the proposed legislative change.

Under Alberta’s rules, a successful citizen initiative requires support from 10 per cent of voters who cast ballots in the most recent provincial election. That number was set at 177,732 signatures based on the 2023 general election.

Organizers appeared to clear that bar easily. Elections Alberta reported that 196,088 signatures were initially counted as valid.

“There’ll be a few bad addresses, but we only needed 178,000. That’s a really big buffer. So we’re quite confident,” Lund told Shootin’ the Breeze after delivering the signatures to Elections Alberta.

However, after a required statistical sampling process applied at a 95 per cent confidence level, the estimated number of valid signatures dropped to 172,088, leaving the campaign 5,644 signatures short of the threshold.

In a statement issued July 3, Lund said he was “simultaneously shocked by this outcome, yet, unfortunately, not surprised, given the continual government rule changes and roadblocks we have faced throughout this campaign.”

He questioned both the result and the process behind it.

“This has been an unreasonable and opaque process from the beginning and, despite diligently following every rule, we are left with more questions than answers,” he said. “I have grave concerns about how this number was reached and the fairness of the process itself.”

Lund said his campaign delivered more than 205,000 signatures on June 10, of which roughly 35,000 were rejected. Elections Alberta’s count began from 196,088 signatures it initially deemed valid, which random statistical sampling then reduced to an estimated 172,088. The agency did not publish a figure for the total number of sheets delivered.

How the count worked

Provincewide, an estimated 5.8 per cent of Alberta’s roughly 2.96 million registered electors signed the petition, according to Elections Alberta.

The agency said most signatures rejected during the initial validation phase were tied to incomplete elector information, invalid dates, electors signing more than once and incomplete or improperly completed canvasser signature witnessing declarations.

During the verification phase, further signatures were lost. Some electors could not be reached and others were unwilling to confirm their information.

Elections Alberta also confirmed the petition was checked against seeded names drawn from the Republican Party of Alberta’s list of electors, an anti-fraud measure added May 1, 2026. No matches were found.

The petition, formally titled the No New Coal Mining in the Eastern Slopes of the Rocky Mountains initiative, sought to prohibit new coal mining and exploration. It would have exempted mines already in active production as of Jan. 1, 2026.

Two projects were named directly. One is Northback Holdings’ Grassy Mountain project near the headwaters of the Oldman River in the Crowsnest Pass. The other is Valory Resources’ Blackstone project in Clearwater County, near the North Saskatchewan River’s headwaters.

Grassy Mountain has a contentious history. A joint federal-provincial review panel rejected the project in 2021, when it was held by Benga Mining. It later returned to the approval process under Northback Holdings. In May 2025, the Alberta Energy Regulator approved deep-drilling exploration permits for the site.

The petition campaign launched with the Notice of Initiative Petition on Feb. 10. Signature collection ran until June 10. Lund and Water Not Coal supporters delivered 18 bins of signature sheets to the Elections Alberta office in Edmonton, unloading them from a horse trailer.

Verification began June 11 and concluded July 2, as required under the Act. It was the first citizen initiative petition verified with scrutineers present, a change introduced through Bill 23, the Justice Statutes Amendment Act, 2026.

The process now moves to its final steps.

Under the Act, Lund and other proponents have until July 6 to return the petition and all canvasser identification documents to Elections Alberta, destroy any copies of signature sheets and file a signed affidavit confirming both steps were completed.

Financial reports related to the campaign are due to Elections Alberta by Aug. 10.

“Today’s announcement is merely another step in the overall fight to protect the Eastern Slopes, not the end of it,” Lund said. He will outline Water Not Coal’s next steps on Monday, July 6.